The Year in Win:
The Year in Fail:
Friday, December 31, 2010
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Greatest Letter Ever on NFL Letterhead
Originally posted in the Cleveland Scene, "Northeast Ohio's Alternative Newsweekly." Click to enlarge (if you must). First, a letter from an irate fan:
Followed by the response:
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Better Late Than Never...
Excellent PDF article about the housing bubble from December 17, 2007 written by Mark Pittman. Must read!
Japan: Too Big to Fail or Bail
Interesting piece in Salon about how Japan has defied pessimists for 20 years:
But at least so far, the consensus is that this dire scenario won't, can't, happen. Indeed, it's often said that you aren't a real macro trader (someone who bets on global trends) until you've gotten burned shorting (i.e., betting against) Japan. "You'll find 10,000 people saying I'm an idiot and that people have been saying this, and been wrong, for 15 years, and kid, shut up," laughs my source. The Bank of Japan says the economy is improving; analysts say the government has lots of options, including raising the value-added tax or having the banking system put even more assets into government bonds. (Already, the Bank of Japan is engaged in its own form of "quantitative easing," or purchasing government bonds, which, just as in the United States, is supposed to help the economy recover.) Japan's relatively healthy corporate sector could take over from households in investing its surplus cash into government bonds. "Everyone acknowledges the long term seriousness of Japan's fiscal position," writes Grice. "But people seem almost fatigued with the idea that a country which has defied bond market logic for so long now is ever going to change."
But at least so far, the consensus is that this dire scenario won't, can't, happen. Indeed, it's often said that you aren't a real macro trader (someone who bets on global trends) until you've gotten burned shorting (i.e., betting against) Japan. "You'll find 10,000 people saying I'm an idiot and that people have been saying this, and been wrong, for 15 years, and kid, shut up," laughs my source. The Bank of Japan says the economy is improving; analysts say the government has lots of options, including raising the value-added tax or having the banking system put even more assets into government bonds. (Already, the Bank of Japan is engaged in its own form of "quantitative easing," or purchasing government bonds, which, just as in the United States, is supposed to help the economy recover.) Japan's relatively healthy corporate sector could take over from households in investing its surplus cash into government bonds. "Everyone acknowledges the long term seriousness of Japan's fiscal position," writes Grice. "But people seem almost fatigued with the idea that a country which has defied bond market logic for so long now is ever going to change."
The World's Most Hated Man
No, not Osama Bin Laden, but Ben Sherwood, former executive producer at Good Morning America, and the newly-appointed president of ABC News. His new employees hate him so much that they made a we-really-hate-you-video about him and leaked it to Gawker. Ben has apparently always been hated by most people he comes in contact with, as evidenced by a 1988 article by Andrew Sullivan (yes, that Andrew Sullivan) for Spy magazine:
But as the Times hinted, Ben's enthusiasm had provoked some teasing from classmates. 'It was a common bond among my classmates at Harvard, hating Ben Sherwood," notes one of his more affectionate former friends. "Ben is one of the most hated people alive," agrees Clark Freshman, a Harvard classmate and, as a Marshall scholar, a fellow Oxonian. "It's bizarre. People actually make an effort to dislike him." Others put it more gently: 'When you think Ben Sherwood, you think funny stories, you think asshole, you think 'Thank God I'm not him,' " says a friend.
Then there's this 2004 e-mail trail, also from Gawker, in which Ben works on his holiday message to his employees at Good Morning America with the help of his wife, resulting in much hilarity.
But as the Times hinted, Ben's enthusiasm had provoked some teasing from classmates. 'It was a common bond among my classmates at Harvard, hating Ben Sherwood," notes one of his more affectionate former friends. "Ben is one of the most hated people alive," agrees Clark Freshman, a Harvard classmate and, as a Marshall scholar, a fellow Oxonian. "It's bizarre. People actually make an effort to dislike him." Others put it more gently: 'When you think Ben Sherwood, you think funny stories, you think asshole, you think 'Thank God I'm not him,' " says a friend.
Then there's this 2004 e-mail trail, also from Gawker, in which Ben works on his holiday message to his employees at Good Morning America with the help of his wife, resulting in much hilarity.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Monday, June 15, 2009
How Screwed is Your Town?
Interesting piece from McClatchy shows when employment in different parts of the country is expected to recover. Looks piss-poor for SoCal!
Sell Sell Sell!
From Reuters:
Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market.
Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market.
Prechter, known for predicting the 1987 stock market crash, joins a growing coterie of market heavyweights in forecasting the United States will lose its top credit rating as the government issues trillions of dollars in debt to fund efforts to bail out the economy.
Fears about the long-term vulnerability of the prized U.S. credit rating came to the fore after Standard & Poor's in May lowered its outlook on Britain, threatening the UK's top AAA rating. That move raised fears that the United States could face a similar risk, with the hefty amounts of government debt issued in both countries to pay for financial rescues causing budget deficits to swell.
Prechter, speaking at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York, said he sees investors' confidence in an economic rebound fading, a trend that will drag the S&P 500 stock index .SPX well below the March 6 intraday low of 666.79 by the end of this year or early next.
Gold Rollercoaster
Here's Prof. Lewis from Minyanville explaining the volatility in gold:
I suppose some gold bulls are upset that a story in the Wall Street Journal said the Federal Reserve is unlikely to boost its purchases of Treasury bonds, so some might think this has removed a near-term upside catalyst. Who knows? (I’m not sure I buy that story’s message either, incidentally).
But let me emphasize: Gold is a long-term play. The US government has only 2 options: default or debase. Both lead to more inflation. What the Fed “wants to do” is irrelevant. What it will be forced to do is all that matters, and it will be forced to monetize more government debt this year. Whether that's in June, July, or August doesn’t really matter. The picture hasn't changed.
Gold bulls need to always be prepared to take violent swings, just as short-sellers in the financials did last year. Like those sellers of financials, gold bulls will get paid off big at the end of the day if they stick to their convictions.
I suppose some gold bulls are upset that a story in the Wall Street Journal said the Federal Reserve is unlikely to boost its purchases of Treasury bonds, so some might think this has removed a near-term upside catalyst. Who knows? (I’m not sure I buy that story’s message either, incidentally).
But let me emphasize: Gold is a long-term play. The US government has only 2 options: default or debase. Both lead to more inflation. What the Fed “wants to do” is irrelevant. What it will be forced to do is all that matters, and it will be forced to monetize more government debt this year. Whether that's in June, July, or August doesn’t really matter. The picture hasn't changed.
Gold bulls need to always be prepared to take violent swings, just as short-sellers in the financials did last year. Like those sellers of financials, gold bulls will get paid off big at the end of the day if they stick to their convictions.
Friday, May 15, 2009
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
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